By Sean Reagan

So here’s another glimpse into how the Obama campaign views the path to 270:

In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several alternatives to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House that runs counter to the conventional wisdom of recent elections.

At a fundraiser held at a Washington brewery Friday, Plouffe told a largely young crowd that the electoral map would be fundamentally different from the one in 2004. Wins in Ohio and Florida would guarantee Obama the presidency if he holds onto the states won by Democrat John Kerry, Plouffe said, but those two battlegrounds aren’t required for victory.

Florida, which has 27 electoral votes this year, gave the presidency to George W. Bush in the disputed election of 2000. Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes, ensured Bush of re-election in 2004 in his race against Kerry.

The presumed Democratic nominee’s electoral math counts on holding onto the states Kerry won, among them Michigan (17 electoral votes), where Obama campaigns on Monday and Tuesday. Plouffe said most of the Kerry states should be reliable for Obama, but three currently look relatively competitive with Republican rival John McCain — Pennsylvania, Michigan and particularly New Hampshire.

There’s no doubt that Obama opens up the map in ways that we haven’t seen in a long time. That’s not a guarantee that in November the final results are going to look different, by the way. Just that the game from now until then is going to be played a little differently.

I reiterate what I wrote the other day when we learned about the seventeen state focus within the fifty state strategy: the states that Obama is targeting own significant rural constituencies. Winning is going to mean improving his margins in those areas.

Plouffe also cautions against overconfidence.

Plouffe is warning Democrats that McCain is an appealing candidate who has proved he can take votes from the middle before and could do so again. McCain won New Hampshire as a GOP candidate in 2000 and 2008, thanks in large part to the state’s high number of independent voters.

That sounds about right to me. Gallup’s daily tracking has the two in a statistical dead heat right now. Worth noting however, is that public perception of the race is different – by a 52-41 margin, voters believe Obama is going to be taking up residence in the White House.

So the chessboard is set up and we’re seeing the opening moves. Look for Team Obama to work the rural vote hard – they just might pave his way to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Posted on June 16th, 2008 by seanreagan
Filed under: Uncategorized